Population forecasts

From 2021, more elderly people than children and teenagers

The current trend of a growing and ageing population in Austria will continue in the future, as shown by the population forecast published today by Statistics Austria. According to the forecast, Austria's population will grow by 6% from 8.88 million (2019) to 9.45 million by 2040, and finally by 12% to 9.93 million by 2080. From 2021, the generation 65+ will be numerically larger than the under 20-year-olds.

Migration gains exceed projected birth deficits

The expected increase in population is exclusively due to supposed migration gains of about 30 000 people per year. This would continue a long-standing trend: Since the turn of the century, Austria's population has increased mainly due to migration surpluses. In the 2001 census Austria counted just over 8 million inhabitants for the first time, the annual average in 2010 was 8.36 million. By 2019 there was a further increase by 6% to 8.88 million. Of the growth since the turn of the century, only just under 5% was accounted for by birth surpluses, the majority being migration gains. As the number of deaths is expected to rise above the number of births in the coming years, the birth balance will become negative. Nevertheless, according to current calculations, the population will exceed the 9 million mark in 2022. A further increase is also likely for the period thereafter, as the projected migration gains will exceed the losses from natural population change.

Strongest population growth at retirement age

The population aged 65 and over will continue to grow strongly in number and proportion. From 2021, more people aged 65 and over will be living in Austria than children and young people under 20. Apart from stagnating birth rates and a presumably continued increase in life expectancy, this is mainly due to the strong birth cohorts of the 1950s and 1960s, who are gradually moving into retirement age. In 2040, the population aged 65+ should be 48% (or more than 800 000 persons) larger than in 2019, while at the same time their share in the population will increase from 18.9% to 26.4%. The number of people in working age from 20 to under 65 years will remain slightly above the 2019 level until 2021, but, until 2040, will fall by almost 300 000 people (5%) below the current level. After 2040, the number of people of working age is projected to remain broadly constant. Although the absolute number of children and young people under 20 will still increase slightly, their share in the total population will decline in the medium term from 19.3% (2019) to 18.8% (2040).

Proportion of foreign-born population to increase from 20% to 27% in the long term

Assuming continued international immigration, the number of foreign-born people in Austria will continue to increase in the future. In 2019, 1.75 million foreign-born people (20% of the total population) lived in Austria. According to the forecast, their number would rise to 2.23 million (+28%) by 2040 and finally to 2.67 million by 2080 (+53% compared to the base year 2019). According to the forecast, the share of people not born in Austria will thus increase to 24% by 2040 and 27% by 2080.

Eastern regions of Austria show strongest growth

The 12% population growth forecast for Austria up to 2080 will be distributed very unevenly across the regions. Above-average increases are expected in Vienna. The federal capital alone attracts almost 40% of international immigration to Austria. According to the forecast, Vienna would exceed the 2 million mark in 2028, as it did last at the beginning of the 20th century. In Carinthia, on the other hand, slight population losses would be expected, as was already the case between 2010 and 2013 and in 2018, which would cause the population to fall behind Salzburg from 2021 onwards. Salzburg would thus become the sixth largest federal state in terms of population. Besides Vienna, above-average population growth is also forecast for Lower Austria, while the trend in Salzburg and Styria is below the federal average. The expected population growth in Burgenland as well as in Upper Austria, Tyrol and Vorarlberg is largely in line with the forecast average for Austria.

Please consult our German website for tables and charts containing further information.

Population forecast for Austria 2019-2100 (main scenario)
Population forecast for Burgenland 2019-2100 (main scenario)
Population forecast for Carinthia 2019-2100 (main scenario)
Population forecast for Lower Austria 2019-2100 (main scenario)
Population forecast for Upper Austria 2019-2100 (main scenario)
Population forecast for Salzburg 2019-2100 (main scenario)
Population forecast for Styria 2019-2100 (main scenario)
Population forecast for Tyrol 2019-2100 (main scenario)
Population forecast for Vorarlberg 2019-2100 (main scenario)
Population forecast for Vienna 2019-2100 (main scenario)

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