Press release: 12.456-047/21

Labour Force Projection 2020: share of the labour force in the total population declines

Vienna, 2021-03-02 – The labour force in Austria should remain relatively constant in the future, according to the available forecast by Statistics Austria. According to the trend variant of the forecast, the demographic supply of the labour force, i.e. the sum of the self-employed and family workers, employees and the unemployed, as well as military and civilian servants, will only be 1.1% lower in 2050 than in 2019 (4.60 million) and will then amount to 4.55 million. However, if age- and gender-specific labour force participation remained constant at the 2019 level, a decline of 5.4% to 4.35 million will be expected by then. If the labour force potential were exploited to a slightly greater extent (activation variant), a slight increase of 1.8% to 4.68 million would be possible by 2050.

"The labour market is becoming increasingly older and more female. Rising labour force participation of women and people on the threshold of retirement age is responsible for this, counteracting the decline in the 15- to 64-year-old population. However, the share of the labour force in the total population is declining from 51.8% in 2019 to 47.3% in 2050. In addition, the ratio of the labour force to those of retirement age is changing significantly: while there are three people in the labour force for every retired person today, there will be only two by 2040. This will put funding pressure on pay-as-you-go systems such as pensions and health care," explains Statistics Austria Director General Tobias Thomas.

Strong growth in labour force in Vienna, declines expected in Carinthia

Vienna, the federal capital, can expect the strongest population growth of all federal states. Unlike in the other federal provinces, the Viennese working-age population will increase significantly as a result of immigration. Accordingly, the labour force will increase by 8.7% until 2050 and by 11.8% until 2080. From 2022 onwards, Vienna's labour force will amount to more than 1 million people. In all other federal states, the labour force will decline or stagnate in the future.

Carinthia has to reckon with a shrinking population, especially of working age. The increasing labour force participation cannot compensate for the declines in the Carinthian basic population. Accordingly, in Austria's southernmost province the labour force will decline the most, by 14.4% by 2050 and finally by 17.7% by 2080. In Styria, the labour force will decrease by 7.1% by 2050 and by 8.4% by 2080. The province of Salzburg has to expect a decline of 4.5% by 2050 and 5.5% by 2080. In Burgenland the decline is projected to be 3.5% by 2050, and in 2080 the labour force will be 2.2% lower than in 2019, the base year of this forecast.

After slight short-term increases, the labour force in Vorarlberg will be 2.8% lower in 2050 and 3.7% lower in 2080 than in 2019. In Tyrol, the labour force will first remain constant, but will decline by 2.3% by 2050 and by 3.0% by 2080. The decline in Upper Austria will be 2.1% by 2050 and 2.2% by 2080. In Lower Austria, the projected labour force remains relatively constant over the entire projection period (2050: -0.2%; 2080: +1.5%).

For more detailed information please refer to the German press release on the labour force projection.

 

Labour force projection by NUTS 2-Regions
NUTS 2 Region20192020203020402050206020702080
Burgenland145 718144 891143 286141 468140 674140 015141 165142 493
Carinthia279 044276 608260 193247 904238 836232 035230 119229 681
Lower Austria868 919866 218865 240865 472867 093864 952872 921881 629
Upper Austria785 737783 230774 808773 729769 449760 405763 716768 613
Salzburg295 261294 510289 051285 370281 906278 032278 062278 973
Styria640 221636 748619 328606 081595 039584 753584 584586 220
Tyrol397 888396 982394 165391 749388 677383 822384 451386 014
Vorarlberg207 892207 656206 704204 533202 105199 368199 468200 164
Vienna979 114982 9451 027 7611 050 7301 064 3311 070 8811 082 6751 094 552
Austria4 599 7944 589 7884 580 5364 567 0364 548 1104 514 2634 537 1614 568 339

For further inquiries please contact Directorate Social Statistics, Statistics Austria:  
Alexander HANIKA, Tel. +43 1 71128-7279 resp. alexander.hanika@statistik.gv.at

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